In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, Marco Bravo highlights AAM’s 2024 economic growth forecast and why we think the Fed will not cut as much as market consensus. Garrett Dungee describes why the Technology sector remains cyclical despite the diversification of its customer base over the past decade. He also details the secular trends that should lead to growth well in excess of broad economic activity through the end of the decade.

Sources: AAM, Bloomberg, Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Federal Reserve and Company reports

This episode was recorded on November 13, 2023 and December 1, 2023.

Any timely data or views should be considered as of this date unless otherwise specified.

Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior. This material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or targets will be achieved, and may be significantly different than that shown here. The information presented, including statements concerning financial market trends, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Although the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements  that may be contained herein are believed to be reasonable they can be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. AAM assumes no duty to provide updates to any analysis contained herein.

Recommendations are that of AAM and subject to change should market conditions warrant. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any advice or a recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial instruments, and may not be construed as such. 

All information contained herein is believed to be accurate as of the date(s) indicated, is not complete, and is subject to change at any time. Certain information contained herein is based on data obtained from third parties and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified by anyone at or affiliated with Asset Allocation & Management Company, LLC. (“AAM”); its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.

For more information and a list of full disclosures please visit the disclaimers section at the bottom of the webpage: https://aamcompany.com/the-portfolio-fix-a-podcast-with-aam/

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, Marco Bravo describes why Fed policy and continued labor strength is behind the recent volatility in the Treasury market. Elizabeth Henderson explains the secular changes taking place to business models in the media sector, and how that affects content, advertising, revenue streams and ultimately company creditworthiness.  This episode was recorded on 10/23/23 and 11/10/23.

Credits discussed were chosen to depict AAM’s security selection process and are for illustrative purposes only. The securities discussed do not represent the entire universe of credits. There is no guarantee the investments discussed would be profitable, nor is it a recommendation to purchase a specific security, and should not be construed as investment advice.

 Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD) remains in transition, but we continue to like what management is doing and how it is positioned longer term.  This means debt repayment to reduce leverage while battling industry headwinds.  In our opinion, WBD intermediate spreads in the Treasuries +205 range are attractive relative to low-BBB peers in the Treasuries +190 range.

Fox (FOXA) and Paramount (PARA) are credits we are concerned are at risk of falling to high yield due to weakening credit fundamentals.  In our opinion, neither FOXA intermediate-dated bond spreads in the Treasuries +185-range nor PARA intermediate-dated bond spreads in the Treasuries +275 range adequately compensate investors for this downgrade risk.

Sources: The Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau and company reports

Any timely data or views should be considered as of this date unless otherwise specified.

Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior. This  material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or targets will be achieved, and may be significantly different than that shown here. The information presented, including statements concerning financial market trends, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Although the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements  that may be contained herein are believed to be reasonable they can be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. AAM assumes no duty to provide updates to any analysis contained herein.

Recommendations are that of AAM and subject to change should market conditions warrant. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any advice or a recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial instruments, and may not be construed as such. 

All information contained herein is believed to be accurate as of the date(s) indicated, is not complete, and is subject to change at any time. Certain information contained herein is based on data obtained from third parties and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified by anyone at or affiliated with Asset Allocation & Management Company, LLC. (“AAM”); its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.

For more information and a list of full disclosures please visit the disclaimers section at the bottom of the webpage: https://aamcompany.com/the-portfolio-fix-a-podcast-with-aam/

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, Marco Bravo talks about what is behind the economy’s resiliency and why the Treasury curve is likely to remain elevated for the next year.  Andy Bohlin explains what is behind the weakness in the Utility sector, how that has created volatility and why there are now opportunities in a traditionally defensive sector. This episode was recorded on October 27, 2023.

Source: Blue Chip Economic & Financial Indicator, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Labor 

Any timely data or views should be considered as of this date unless otherwise specified.

Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior. This  material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or targets will be achieved, and may be significantly different than that shown here. The information presented, including statements concerning financial market trends, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Although the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements  that may be contained herein are believed to be reasonable they can be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. AAM assumes no duty to provide updates to any analysis contained herein.

Recommendations are that of AAM and subject to change should market conditions warrant. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any advice or a recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial instruments, and may not be construed as such. 

All information contained herein is believed to be accurate as of the date(s) indicated, is not complete, and is subject to change at any time. Certain information contained herein is based on data obtained from third parties and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified by anyone at or affiliated with Asset Allocation & Management Company, LLC. (“AAM”); its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.

For more information and a list of full disclosures please visit the disclaimers section at the bottom of the webpage: https://aamcompany.com/the-portfolio-fix-a-podcast-with-aam/

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, Elizabeth Henderson reviews the recent Moody’s Corporate Credit roundtable in which she participated. She highlights the resilient investment grade and high yield markets but points out two risks highlighted by other panelists – the private credit market and higher oil prices. Patrick McGeever explains why oil prices are at elevated levels and details why he does not believe oil will sustainably rise above $100 per barrel in 2024. This episode was recorded on October 2, 2023. 

Sources: Moody’s, OPEC, Energy Information Agency, the Bureau of Economic Analysis

Any timely data or views should be considered as of this date unless otherwise specified.

Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior. This  material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or targets will be achieved, and may be significantly different than that shown here. The information presented, including statements concerning financial market trends, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Although the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements that may be contained herein are believed to be reasonable they can be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. AAM assumes no duty to provide updates to any analysis contained herein.

Recommendations are that of AAM and subject to change should market conditions warrant. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any advice or a recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial instruments, and may not be construed as such. 

All information contained herein is believed to be accurate as of the date(s) indicated, is not complete, and is subject to change at any time. Certain information contained herein is based on data obtained from third parties and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified by anyone at or affiliated with Asset Allocation & Management Company, LLC. (“AAM”); its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.

For more information and a list of full disclosures please visit the disclaimers section at the bottom of the webpage: https://aamcompany.com/the-portfolio-fix-a-podcast-with-aam/

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, Tim Senechalle explains why recent improved inflation data may not mean an imminent return to a normal Treasury Curve. Andy Bohlin follows with an update on the Auto sector, one of the first industries to experience rapid inflation, and why conditions in that sector are normalizing. This episode was recorded on July 21, 2023.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Federal Reserve, Department of Labor, Bloomberg, Wards Automotive Group

Any timely data or views should be considered as of this date unless otherwise specified.

Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior. This  material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or targets will be achieved, and may be significantly different than that shown here. The information presented, including statements concerning financial market trends, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Although the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements  that may be contained herein are believed to be reasonable they can be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. AAM assumes no duty to provide updates to any analysis contained herein.

Recommendations are that of AAM and subject to change should market conditions warrant. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any advice or a recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial instruments, and may not be construed as such. 

All information contained herein is believed to be accurate as of the date(s) indicated, is not complete, and is subject to change at any time. Certain information contained herein is based on data obtained from third parties and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified by anyone at or affiliated with Asset Allocation & Management Company, LLC. (“AAM”); its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.

For more information and a list of full disclosures please visit the disclaimers section at the bottom of the webpage: https://aamcompany.com/the-portfolio-fix-a-podcast-with-aam/

In this episode of The Portfolio Fix, Leah Savageau explains why the banking sector is likely to face higher wholesale funding costs following the acute liquidity deterioration in March. She goes on to describe why her primary concern has shifted from liquidity to banks’ lending books. Marco Bravo also interprets the recent inflation data points and how markets are reacting. This episode was recorded on April 13, 2023.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Any timely data or views should be considered as of this date unless otherwise specified.

Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior. This  material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or targets will be achieved, and may be significantly different than that shown here. The information presented, including statements concerning financial market trends, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Although the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements  that may be contained herein are believed to be reasonable they can be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. AAM assumes no duty to provide updates to any analysis contained herein.

Recommendations are that of AAM and subject to change should market conditions warrant. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any advice or a recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial instruments, and may not be construed as such. 

All information contained herein is believed to be accurate as of the date(s) indicated, is not complete, and is subject to change at any time. Certain information contained herein is based on data obtained from third parties and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified by anyone at or affiliated with Asset Allocation & Management Company, LLC. (“AAM”); its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.

For more information and a list of full disclosures please visit the disclaimers section at the bottom of the webpage: https://aamcompany.com/the-portfolio-fix-a-podcast-with-aam/